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Activity One: Explaining Population Change
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by Martha Sharma
Retired Teacher
Hilton Head, South Carolina
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Introduction
Throughout much of history human populations have been characterized by relative stability -- high birth rates and high death rates fluctuating around a low growth equilibrium. Dramatic changes followed first the Agricultural Revolution some 8,000 years ago and later the Industrial Revolution 250 years ago, when improvements in food supply and changes in health and hygiene triggered unprecedented population growth. In the 1930s and 1940s, demographers proposed a model to explain the demographic changes observed in Western Europe between the late eighteenth and early twentieth centuries. This model -- the Demographic Transition Model -- suggests a shift from high fertility/high mortality to low fertility/low mortality, with an intermediate period of rapid growth during which declining fertility rates lag behind declining mortality rates. This classic model is based on the experience of Western Europe, in particular England and Wales.
What Is "Demographic Transition"?
Materials Needed
Instructions
Before beginning this activity, assign the readings as homework.
- Explain the classic stages of demographic transition using the PowerPoint slide or overhead transparency listed above.
- Have students construct a graph of birth and death rates in England using either graph paper or graphing software (Excel).
| Year |
CBR (Crude Birth Rate) |
CDR (Crude Death Rate) |
Population |
| 1750 |
40 |
40 |
6 |
| 1800 |
34 |
20 |
9 |
| 1850 |
34 |
22 |
18 |
| 1900 |
28 |
16 |
32 |
| 1950 |
16 |
12 |
44 |
| 2000 |
11 |
10 |
60 |
- Compare the graph of England's transition to the classic model.
- What similarities and differences can be observed?
- Discuss social and economic factors that account for the changes in population patterns over the past two centuries. [Encourage students to draw on their knowledge of world history to enrich this discussion.]
- Show a graph of demographic transition in Sweden and Mexico using the PowerPoint slide or overhead transparency listed above. [See alternative strategy below.]
- Compare the transitions in these two countries to the classic model.
- Why are the demographic experiences of these two countries so different?
- Why did Mexico's late start toward transition result in such dramatic growth?
- Is Mexico typical of countries currently undergoing transition?
- Does this mean that the classic model is no longer relevant?
Alternative Strategy
Instructions
- Supply the following data and have the students construct the graph for analysis.
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Sweden |
Mexico |
| Year |
CBR (Crude Birth Rate) |
CDR (Crude Death Rate) |
CBR |
CDR |
| 1750 |
36 |
27 |
-- |
-- |
| 1760 |
36 |
25 |
-- |
-- |
| 1770 |
33 |
26 |
-- |
-- |
| 1780 |
36 |
22 |
-- |
-- |
| 1790 |
31 |
31 |
-- |
-- |
| 1800 |
29 |
31 |
-- |
-- |
| 1810 |
33 |
32 |
-- |
-- |
| 1820 |
33 |
25 |
-- |
-- |
| 1830 |
33 |
24 |
-- |
-- |
| 1840 |
31 |
20 |
-- |
-- |
| 1850 |
32 |
20 |
-- |
-- |
| 1860 |
35 |
18 |
-- |
-- |
| 1870 |
29 |
20 |
-- |
-- |
| 1880 |
29 |
18 |
-- |
-- |
| 1890 |
28 |
17 |
-- |
-- |
| 1900 |
27 |
17 |
47 |
33 |
| 1910 |
25 |
14 |
43 |
47 |
| 1920 |
24 |
13 |
45 |
28 |
| 1930 |
15 |
12 |
45 |
26 |
| 1940 |
15 |
11 |
45 |
22 |
| 1950 |
17 |
10 |
45 |
17 |
| 1960 |
14 |
10 |
45 |
12 |
| 1970 |
14 |
10 |
43 |
10 |
| 6 |
32 |
11 |
12 |
1980 |
| 1990 |
14 |
11 |
27 |
5 |
| 2000 |
10 |
11 |
22 |
5 |
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